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Circana analyst Mat Piscatella says Xbox’s recent initiatives have yet to produce positive effects in the sales and engagement data he tracks, while console hardware trends continue to weaken. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has pointed to record Minecraft and World of Warcraft Forever sales, but whether removing Call of Duty from Game Pass at launch increased full-price purchases remains unknown.
Circana analyst Mat Piscatella says he has not seen Xbox’s recent initiatives improve the sales and engagement data he tracks, as the platform faces continuing pressure on console hardware and lower Call of Duty engagement after the series’ latest release was removed from Game Pass at launch. His assessment contrasts with CEO Asha Sharma’s focus on record Minecraft and World of Warcraft Forever sales, while leaving open whether Microsoft’s change to Call of Duty’s subscription availability generated more full-price purchases.
Speaking on a recent episode of Christopher Dring’s The Game Business Show, Piscatella said Xbox’s disc-to-digital program had not changed the trend in new physical software sales he monitors. He also said the decision to make Gears exclusive had not altered the console hardware trend, which he described as continuing to worsen. Piscatella said Xbox had also lost some distribution in the United States, though he did not provide figures in the remarks provided.
Piscatella pointed to a sharp change in Call of Duty engagement on Xbox. In his account, about 28% of Xbox players in the relevant engagement tracker played the game on its release day the previous year, when it launched on Game Pass. On the corresponding day this year, when the new release was not available through Game Pass at launch, the figure was 14%. These percentages describe engagement on the launch day, not sales or total players over a longer period.
He said the figures did not show that players who had accessed the previous game through Game Pass had broadly bought the new release instead. However, Piscatella also acknowledged that he did not yet have the sales data needed to determine whether outright purchases increased. His concern is that removing a major day-one release may have reduced Game Pass’s value to Xbox players without a demonstrated lift in sales elsewhere.
Record Game Sales. Unsettled Console Story.
Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has highlighted record Minecraft and World of Warcraft Forever sales. Circana analyst Mat Piscatella says the initiatives he tracks have not yet improved sales and engagement trends. The data leaves a central question open: did taking Call of Duty out of Game Pass at launch lead to more full-price purchases?
Three signals, different measures
Publishing results, console hardware, and player engagement measure different parts of the business. One cannot automatically stand in for another.
Record sales cited
Sharma pointed to record Minecraft and World of Warcraft Forever sales. The remarks provided no figures or precise sales periods for comparison.
Trend still under pressure
Piscatella said neither the disc-to-digital program nor Gears exclusivity changed the trends he monitors. He described hardware as continuing to worsen.
Fewer launch-day players
His comparison showed lower Xbox launch-day engagement for the latest Call of Duty release. It does not establish total sales or later play.
What the Call of Duty comparison shows
The percentages describe the share of tracked Xbox players who played on the corresponding release day in two different years.
Day-one player activity
Reported by Piscatella; launch-day engagement, not units sold or total players over time.
Engagement fell; the sales answer is still missing.
Piscatella said the figures did not show that players who had accessed the previous game through Game Pass broadly bought the new release instead.
He also said he did not yet have the sales data needed to determine whether outright purchases increased. The launch-day comparison alone cannot settle the financial case for the change.
Interpretation: Piscatella argued that removing a major day-one game may weaken Game Pass’s value, particularly alongside price increases. The remarks provide no subscriber retention data or full financial breakdown.
What the data can—and cannot—say
Observed signals
- Piscatella reported no positive effect from recent Xbox initiatives in the sales and engagement data he tracks.
- His cited Xbox Call of Duty launch-day engagement moved from 28% to 14% across the two comparable days.
- He described console hardware trends as worsening and said Xbox had lost some U.S. distribution, without providing figures.
Open questions
- Whether more players purchased Call of Duty outright after it left Game Pass at launch.
- How much revenue the game generated, how many people played later, or how total playtime changed.
- The scale and causes of hardware pressure, subscriber response, and the figures behind the record sales cited.
The next evidence to watch
Microsoft’s forecast and the missing purchase data answer separate questions. Neither result alone will establish every cause behind Xbox’s performance.
Track the forecast
Microsoft expects content and services revenue to return to growth next quarter.
Read the result
Revenue growth would inform the wider business outlook, not prove hardware recovery.
Get purchase data
Call of Duty sales figures are needed to assess any full-price buying lift.
Keep measures distinct
Compare sales, engagement, subscriptions, and hardware on their own terms.
Game Pass Trade-Off Still Unmeasured
The figures raise a practical question about Xbox’s subscription strategy: whether withholding a major game from Game Pass can encourage enough full-price buying to compensate for lower launch-day engagement. Piscatella’s data, as described on the show, indicates fewer Xbox players engaged with Call of Duty on the comparable launch day. It does not establish how much revenue the game generated through purchases, so it cannot by itself settle the financial case for the decision.
The debate also matters because Game Pass is a central part of Xbox’s offer to players. Piscatella argued that removing a day-one game weakens that offer, particularly alongside price increases. That is his interpretation of the platform’s value proposition, not a confirmed assessment of how all subscribers have responded. The available remarks provide no subscriber-retention figures or full financial breakdown.
More broadly, the discussion highlights a gap between publishing performance and console health. Record sales for major Microsoft-owned games may support the wider business, but do not automatically reverse hardware declines or increase engagement on Xbox consoles. Those outcomes depend on different measures, and the material presented does not establish that one trend caused another.
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The Metrics Behind Xbox’s Debate
The comments come amid a reported decline in Xbox revenue for the latest quarter. Sharma has emphasized positive results, including record Minecraft and World of Warcraft Forever sales. The provided information does not specify the precise sales periods or figures behind those records, so they should not be directly compared with Piscatella’s console and engagement observations.
Microsoft has also said it expects content and services revenue to return to growth next quarter, while Sharma has attributed pressure on console sales to supply issues. These are company statements and forward-looking expectations; they do not confirm that hardware demand has recovered. Piscatella’s comments address the sales and engagement data he follows, including physical software, console hardware trends, and player activity.
The Call of Duty comparison concerns engagement on the same launch day in two different years, with different Game Pass availability. It is not a complete measurement of total sales, total playtime, or the game’s performance across platforms. That distinction matters when evaluating what the data can—and cannot—show about Xbox’s strategy.
“No matter what they do in terms of the console side, saying Gears is going to be exclusive, that hasn’t made any difference in terms of the hardware trend.”
— Mat Piscatella, discussing Xbox hardware and Gears exclusivity
Purchase Data Remains Outstanding
The key unresolved issue is whether more players bought Call of Duty outright after it stopped launching on Game Pass. Piscatella said he did not yet have the necessary sales data. The 28% and 14% figures he cited measure launch-day engagement in Xbox tracking, not units sold or revenue, and do not show how many people played later.
The provided remarks also do not give detailed hardware sales totals, the scale of the reported U.S. distribution loss, or the figures behind the record Minecraft and World of Warcraft Forever sales. Microsoft’s supply explanation and its expectation of content and services growth are company statements; the information here does not independently establish how much supply constraints account for console performance or whether the forecast will be met.
Next Quarter Will Test the Forecast
The next stated milestone is Microsoft’s expectation that content and services revenue will return to growth next quarter. That result may offer a further measure of the wider Xbox business, but it will not by itself answer whether console hardware or Game Pass engagement has improved. More complete Call of Duty sales information would be needed to assess whether the launch-day availability change delivered the full-price sales gain Microsoft sought.
Until those figures are available, the evidence supports a limited conclusion: Piscatella reports weaker engagement on the comparable Call of Duty launch day and no positive effect from Xbox initiatives in the sales and engagement data he tracks. The financial impact of the Call of Duty decision, the causes behind hardware trends, and the outcome of Microsoft’s growth forecast remain unsettled.
Source: Wccftech
Key Questions
What did Mat Piscatella say about Xbox’s recent initiatives?
He said he had not seen a positive impact in the sales and engagement data he tracks, citing physical software trends, console hardware, and other measures.
What were the Call of Duty engagement figures?
Piscatella said about 28% of Xbox players in the relevant tracker played on the launch day the previous year, when the game was on Game Pass. He said the comparable figure this year was 14%, when the release was not on Game Pass at launch.
Does the engagement drop prove Call of Duty sales fell?
No. The percentages refer to launch-day engagement, not sales. Piscatella said he did not yet have the purchase data needed to establish whether more players bought the game outright.
What positive results has Asha Sharma highlighted?
Sharma has pointed to record sales of Minecraft and World of Warcraft Forever. The information provided does not include the underlying sales figures or periods.
What does Microsoft expect next quarter?
Microsoft expects content and services revenue to return to growth next quarter. That forecast does not confirm that console hardware trends have improved.
Source: Wccftech
